Poway Crime Policies and Politicians
tl;dr
1. Poway is safe.
2. There is no defunding of police happening in Poway.
3. There is no obvious law enforcement policy issue that supports calls for removal of any particular Poway councilmember.
4. Don't try to have a policy discussion on NextDoor.
I was reading a thread on the NextDoor website concerning a recent mailbox break-in in Poway, CA. One poster opined the following:
"What will the police do when they continue to get no help […]? We are being held hostage by people who steal our mail, who steal packages from our front porches, vandalize our cars and not much is being done, and if they do get caught they are released almost immediately. It's a criminals paradise. No consequences.”
Another answered with this:
“Be sure to vote these corrupt politicians out of office in November! That is the only way we will get the police back and the criminals put in jail.”
I made the mistake of asking this in reply:
"I have a sincere question for you. Which specific politicians do you object to, which policies are questionable, and what policies would you recommend to improve the situation?”
The answering posts called me clueless, accused me of living under a rock, and called me ignorant. None answered the question. Finally one poster said the following:
"Which politicians DO YOU LIKE Robin? What policies do you like that you voted for via your choice of politicians? Do you prefer crime and no punishment? Do you believe in defunding police? What do you think Robin?”
With that reasonable gauntlet thrown down, I thought I’d address the question with some research and a thoughtful answer here, though it will probably not be read by many.
First I need to narrow the question to one that can be answered in a post. The issue is that crime, or at least its reporting on NextDoor, is on the increase in Poway. I do not live or vote in Poway, rather in the Scripps Ranch area of San Diego, but that was the context of the original post. Addressing San Diego issues is a much larger task, so I’ll stick to Poway.
So, to answer the questions:
Q: What politicians do I like?
A: Those willing to hold actual discussions and debate on the issues rather than attacking their opponents. That’s hard to do when negative campaigning has a better chance of getting one elected than actual discussion. As I said in one of my follow-up posts: “… You can't solve problems only along party lines. There are good and dedicated people serving in public office who differ in their approaches to these difficult problems. I'd rather discuss the issues than attack those who disagree with me.” That goes for the politicians I like as well, if indeed they are able to make it into office in the first place.
Q: What policies do you like that you voted for via your choice of politicians?
A: The context of the original question, crime in Poway, means that we’re talking about local politics here, not national. Your choice of President doesn’t really affect the probability that someone will break into your mailbox or your car in the driveway. So, let’s look at actual crime statistics.
Credit: https://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/california/poway.html
This chart, based on the FBI Report of Offenses Known to Law Enforcement, shows property crime incidents decreasing in Poway through 2019, and generally half of what is experienced elsewhere in California and the nation.
Total Poway crime, also based on FBI statistics <https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s>, shows a similar trend:
Poway CA Crime Rate 1999-2018. www.macrotrends.net. Retrieved 2022-08-11 from https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/us/ca/poway/crime-rate-statistics
In 2020 crime decreased 20% based on statistics from the Automated Regional Justice Information System (ARJIS) as reported in the San Diego Union Tribune <https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/pomerado-news/news/story/2021-03-03/poway-crime-down-22-percent-in-2020>. Of course, it’s hard to compare apples-to-apples considering the effects of the pandemic, but it’s reasonable to conclude that Poway is a very safe place to live. It’s slightly amusing that the "safety grade" given Poway by one site is an “A+” and by another is a “C-.” The first site is selling homes, and the second is selling home security systems. Always check your sources!
Conclusion #1: Poway is safe.
The relative safety of Poway is a significant factor when the Poway City Council builds its budget. This is where policy and politics meet in the gladiatorial arena. The City of Poway’s annual budget for FY23 (July 2022-June 2023) is available at https://docs.poway.org/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=167148&dbid=0&repo=CityofPoway&cr=1, and previous budgets are available at https://docs.poway.org/WebLink/Browse.aspx?id=20154&dbid=0&repo=CityofPoway.
Law enforcement in Poway is contracted from the San Diego County Sheriff’s Department. Over time, law enforcement as a percentage of the overall city operating fund budget is as follows (in real dollars):
FY21 - $14.3M / $48.4M = 29%
FY22 - $14.8M / $50.5M = 29%
FY23 - $14.9M / $51.9M = 29%
Conclusion #2: There is no defunding of police happening in Poway.
The Poway city council is a mixed group. Steve Vaus, the mayor of Poway, is a Republican, as are councilmembers Caylin Frank and Barry Leonard. Councilmembers John Mullin and Dave Grosch avoid claims of party affiliation in their public discourse. None has been accused (with evidence) of any corrupt activity. The city council has managed to pass budgets that support sufficient law enforcement to maintain Poway’s safety.
Conclusion #3: There is no obvious law enforcement policy issue that would support removal of any particular Poway councilmember.